在1951年至2014年期间,印度的复合温暖,干燥,潮湿和寒冷气候极端的变化
Shaik Rehana1, Vivek Nannaka1, Satish Kumar Mummidivarapu1
1Hydroclimatic Research Group, Lab for Spatial Informatics, International Institute of Information Technology, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Telangana 500032, India.
The Science of the total environment
|August 3, 2024
概括
印度热/干和冷/湿等复合气候极端事件正在增加,带来更大的风险. 了解这些温度和降水极端的变化对于生态系统和物理风险评估至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 同时发生的极端气候会对生态系统产生重大影响,并增加物理风险.
- 对单个极端的研究 (热,干旱) 是广泛的,但复合极端 (温暖/干燥,寒冷/干燥,温暖/潮湿,寒冷/潮湿) 在全球范围内不太了解.
- 关于复合气候事件的发生,规模,空间范围和风险存在一个知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查印度陆地上各种复合气候极端场景的发生,规模,空间范围和相关风险.
- 通过使用历史气候数据,分析温暖/干燥,寒冷/干燥,温暖/潮湿和寒冷/潮湿事件的趋势.
- 为复合极端气候变化提供多变量视角.
主要方法:
- 利用了1951年至2014年的月度最高温度 (Tx) 和标准化降雨蒸发指数 (SPEI) 数据.
- 数据是从印度气象局 (IMD) 获得的,用于印度陆地.
- 分析了Tx和SPEI的组合,以识别和量化不同类型的复合极端事件.
主要成果:
- 在印度,温暖/干燥事件的空间范围每十年增加1.8%,而冷/湿事件每十年减少1.1%.
- 温暖/湿的事件显示每十年大约有0.3%的增长趋势,而冷/干的事件每十年增加0.7%.
- 复合热/干和冷/湿极端更频繁地发生,回归期更短 (风险更高),而冷/干和热/湿极端更少发生,回归期更长 (风险更低).
结论:
- 复合气候极端,特别是热/干和冷/湿事件,在印度的空间范围和频率上呈现出显著的变化.
- 某些复合极端的频率增加和回归周期缩短表明生态系统和基础设施的风险增加.
- 这些发现提高了对多变量气候极端变化的理解,这对于印度的风险评估和适应策略至关重要.
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