全球气候最近和预测的变化可能会增加尼古丁吸收和绿色烟草疾病的风险
Lewis H Ziska1, Robbie M Parks2
1Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. lhz2103@cumc.columbia.edu.
Communications medicine
|August 3, 2024
概括
气温上升和降雨增加了烟草工人患绿色烟草病 (GTS) 的风险. 气候变化预测显示,到2100年,尼古丁吸收量将大幅增加,这可能会使GTS发病率恶化.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 在烟草收获期间皮肤吸收尼古丁会导致绿色烟草病 (GTS).
- GTS的症状包括恶心,吐,头痛和头.
- 降雨和高温是已知GTS的风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 分析主要烟草种植地区的近期和预测气候趋势.
- 评估气候变化导致GTS发生的潜在恶化.
- 在不同的气候场景下估计尼古丁皮肤吸收的变化.
主要方法:
- 分析了自20世纪70年代以来巴西,中国,印度和美国的温度和降水趋势.
- 利用结合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 共享社会经济路径 (SSPs) 场景 (1-2.6, 3-7.0, 5-8.5) 预测到2100.
- 采用尼古丁皮肤贴片协议和温度数据作为估计尼古丁吸收的代理.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪70年代以来,在三个研究地点观察到收获时间温度和降雨量的显著增加.
- 根据SSP 3-7.0和5-8.5情景,所有地点的最大温度预计将在2100年增加.
- 估计的尼古丁皮肤吸收显示与温度上升相关的显著增加,无论是在历史上还是未来的预测中.
结论:
- 人为气候变化与GTS风险增加有关.
- 在SSP 5-8.5情景下,到2100年,尼古丁吸收可能会增加约50%.
- 预计尼古丁吸收的增加可能会显著影响GTS发病率,特别是在年轻的烟草工人中.
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