随着政权的转变,作物繁荣
Victoria Junquera1,2, Maja Schlüter3, Juan Rocha3
1High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Royal Society open science
|August 5, 2024
概括
农作物繁荣,新作物的突然扩张,是由先决条件和触发因素驱动的. 它们的强度和非线性源于社会,多层次的反,提供新的管理见解.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统理论应用于农业扩张.
- 边境地区的生态和农业经济学.
背景情况:
- 农作物繁荣的特点是突然的,非线性扩张,人们对其了解甚少,难以管理.
- 农作物繁荣和土地制度转变之间的相似性表明复杂的系统动态.
研究的目的:
- 通过复杂系统理论,提供对作物繁荣动态的新见解.
- 分析作物繁荣的发生,时间,强度和非线性.
- 确定在作物繁荣时期进行管理干预的机会.
主要方法:
- 对老北部和香种植扩张的定性和定量数据的分析.
- 复杂系统理论的应用,以了解繁荣衰退的动态.
- 确定预先条件,触发因素和自强化反驱动杆.
主要成果:
- 预先条件 (例如,以前的繁荣) 解释了繁荣的发生,而触发因素 (例如,政策变化) 解释了时机.
- 繁荣的强度和非线性是由社会,多尺度和门依赖的反驱动的 (例如,邻里效应,模仿,土地冲动).
- 农作物繁荣与政权转型具有共同的特征,并受到边界动态的影响.
结论:
- 农作物繁荣是常见的现象,具有可预测的特征,由内部社会反驱动.
- 提出了农作物繁荣的因果机制解释,将其与政权转变联系起来.
- 管理干预可以在繁荣之前,期间和之后进行战略定时.
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