结合顾问的预测:咨询独立性和口头与数字格式之间的影响
Jeremy D Strueder1, Paul D Windschitl1
1Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Iowa.
Journal of experimental psychology. General
|August 5, 2024
概括
人们根据顾问的独立性调整他们的概率估计,当顾问使用单独的证据时做出更极端的判断. 然而,这种对建议格式的敏感性并不取决于建议是口头还是数字的.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 以前的研究表明,在预测组合中,对咨询独立性的敏感性有限.
- 研究往往侧重于数值预测,可能忽视了口头建议如何处理的差异.
- 最近的工作突出了将口头与数字概率预测相结合的不同策略.
研究的目的:
- 检查咨询顾问的策略是否对咨询独立性的突出差异敏感.
- 要确定建议格式 (口头与数字) 是否影响对建议独立性的敏感性.
- 调查证据来源如何影响预测的组合.
主要方法:
- 为了评估咨询策略,进行了两项研究.
- 参与者结合了使用单独或相同证据的顾问的预测.
- 建议以口头或数字形式呈现.
主要成果:
- 与共享证据相比,接受建议的人在接受个人使用单独证据的建议时,做出了更极端的概率估计.
- 口头预测导致了比数字预测更极端的综合估计.
- 对咨询独立性的敏感性没有被发现取决于咨询格式.
结论:
- 顾问可以根据顾问独立性的突出性调整他们的组合策略.
- 建议的形式影响了结合判断的极端性,口头建议产生了更极端的结果.
- 建议组合的决策过程是复杂的,受到来源独立性和建议呈现格式的影响.
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