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相关概念视频

Cause and Effect01:53

Cause and Effect

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While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II01:28

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The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:
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Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I01:30

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The Bradford Hill criteria are a group of principles that provide a framework to determine a causal relationship between a specific factor and a disease. There are nine criteria that are pivotal in assessing causality in epidemiological studies. Here's a closer look at Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality criteria with definitions and examples:
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Fundamental Attribution Error01:14

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According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...
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Confirmation Biases01:31

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The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?
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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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A Psychophysics Paradigm for the Collection and Analysis of Similarity Judgments
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建模对因果判断的信心

Kevin O'Neill1, Paul Henne2, John Pearson1

  • 1Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University.

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概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

人们对因果关系的信心受潜在原因的正常性影响. 这项研究发现,当因果效应在想象中的替代方案中变化较小时,信心会增加.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 因果推理因果推理

背景情况:

  • 反事实理论表明,因果判断依赖于考虑其他可能性.
  • 最近的模型建议对反事实进行概率抽样,以评估因果关系的强度.
  • 现有的模型解释了正常性对因果判断的影响,而不是信心.

研究的目的:

  • 测试反事实抽样模型关于正常性对因果判断信心的影响的预测.
  • 调查统计的正常性如何影响对因果判断的信心.

主要方法:

  • 与3,020名参与者进行了大规模的因果判断任务.
  • 分析了候选和替代原因的正常性如何影响参与者的信心.
  • 使用反事实抽样模型来预测观察到的信心水平.

主要成果:

  • 正常性显著影响人们对因果判断的信心.
  • 当效应在反事实可能性中变化较小时,参与者对因果关系更有信心.
  • 调查结果与反事实抽样模型的预测一致.

结论:

  • 在反事实场景中,因果效应的变化是因果信心的关键决定因素.
  • 反事实抽样模型为理解因果推理和信心的心理基础提供了一个强大的框架.