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综合气候预测的建模方法,用于沿海地下水管理
Shubham Tiwari1, Sara Saviano2, Maurizio Polemio1
1Hydrogeology Group, National Research Council - Research Institute for Hydrogeological Protection (CNR-IRPI), Bari 70126, Italy.
The Science of the total environment
|August 5, 2024
概括
气候变化和地下水开采导致沿海水层盐化. 本研究提出了一个数字方法来预测和管理这些风险,整合气候预测和人类影响.
科学领域:
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 沿海含水层面临气候变化和过度开采导致的盐化.
- 海水的入侵对这些地区的淡水资源构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种广泛适用的数值方法来评估地下水的化.
- 在气候变化场景下整合水文平衡,边界条件和灌需求.
- 评估风险并概述沿海水层的适应策略.
主要方法:
- 采用了逆水地质水平衡方法.
- 使用MODFLOW (地下水流) 和SEAWAT (盐运输) 的数值建模.
- 纳入了对未来边界条件 (盐度,海平面,充电) 的气候变化预测.
- 考虑农业活动,地下水需求和河流阶段的变化.
主要成果:
- 该方法在Metaponto沿海平原上进行了测试,确定了盐化风险.
- 量化了气候变化和人类活动对地下水枯竭和化的综合影响.
- 提供了地下水盐化影响的3D可视化.
结论:
- 开发的方法有效地模拟了沿海地区的地下水枯竭和盐化风险.
- 数字评估可以指导可持续地下水管理的适应策略.
- 综合建模对于理解影响沿海水层的复杂相互作用至关重要.
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