对预测模型中使用的方法的系统性审查,其中包含反复事件数据
Victoria Watson1, Catrin Tudur Smith2, Laura J Bonnett2
1Department of Health Data Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. Victoria.watson@liverpool.ac.uk.
Diagnostic and prognostic research
|August 5, 2024
概括
这次系统性审查分析了反复事件预测模型的统计方法. 安德森-吉尔方法和脆弱性模型是最常见的,但验证实践不一致,突出了方法论研究的需要.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 临床预测建模模型
背景情况:
- 经常发生的事件,如重复发作,在慢性疾病中很常见.
- 多变量预测模型旨在预测针对量身定制的干预措施的这些反复事件的风险.
- 开发和验证这些模型的统计方法会有很大的差异.
研究的目的:
- 系统地识别和描述用于开发反复事件数据的多变量预测模型的统计方法.
- 为了非正式地评估这些统计分析方法的特点和质量.
主要方法:
- 在MEDLINE中使用与反复事件和预测模型相关的关键词进行了系统的文献搜索.
- 包括研究开发或验证了复发事件结果的多变量临床预测模型,特别是事件时间.
- 统计分析方法,事件率和模型性能统计数据 (歧视,校准) 被提取.
主要成果:
- 审查中包括了301个出版物.
- 安德森-吉尔方法 (50.5%) 和脆弱模型 (38.5%) 是最常用的统计方法.
- 内部验证仅在24.9%的研究中报告,外部验证仅在1.0%中报告.
结论:
- 目前,广泛的统计方法用于反复事件预测模型.
- 观察到的变异性表明该领域的潜在不成熟,需要更多的研究来标准化方法.
- 进一步的工作是必不可少的,以确保稳健的统计方法和全面的报告在模型开发和验证.
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