摩洛哥干旱的未来预测和对农业的潜在影响
Veysel Gumus1, Nabil El Moçayd2, Mehmet Seker3
1Civil Engineering Department, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey; Department of Engineering, University of Durham, South Road, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom.
Journal of environmental management
|August 6, 2024
概括
摩洛哥因气温上升和降雨量减少而面临干旱风险增加. 未来的预测显示,干旱严重程度显著增加,影响水资源和粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 摩洛哥很容易受到气候变化的影响,特别是干旱.
- 准确的未来干旱危险评估对于适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用多模型组合 (MME) 方法评估摩洛哥未来的干旱危险.
- 预测降水变化,潜在蒸发透气 (PET),干旱度和干旱指数 (SPEI).
主要方法:
- 使用成功的气候模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 一般循环模型 (GCMs) 构建了一个基于人工神经网络的MME.
- 预计未来降水,PET,干旱度指数和标准降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 价值在不同未来时期的预测变化.
- 在共享社会经济路径5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) 情景下分析了空间干旱模式和严重程度.
主要成果:
- 预计降水减少和PET增加,导致干旱风险更高.
- 未来的SPEI值表明,摩洛哥各地干旱严重程度的增加趋势.
- 北部地区的干旱发生率较高,随着时间的推移,干旱的严重程度越来越大.
- 根据SSP5-8.5情景,干旱严重程度预计将在2050年后显著增加.
结论:
- 预计摩洛哥未来的干旱状况将大大恶化.
- 干旱严重程度的增加对水资源,农业和粮食安全构成重大风险.
- 调查结果强调,摩洛哥迫切需要采取气候变化适应和减缓措施.
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