失败风险管理:自适应性绩效控制和任务中止决策
Qingan Qiu1, Rong Li2, Xian Zhao2,3
1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
概括
本研究介绍了安全关键系统的动态性能控制和任务中断 (PCMA). 优化的PCMA决策通过平衡任务成功和失败风险来最大限度地提高收入.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 安全关键系统的故障风险与性能水平有关,提供了控制机会.
- 任务中断是减轻操作期间危险的关键策略.
研究的目的:
- 通过优化动态性能控制和任务中止 (PCMA) 决策来最大限度地提高预期收入.
- 为了平衡任务完成概率与连续任务中的系统故障风险.
主要方法:
- 制定了联合优化问题作为基于条件的PCMA的马尔科夫决策过程.
- 建立了价值函数的单调性和性,以获得最佳的政策.
- 分析了用于比较性绩效评估的启发式策略.
主要成果:
- 优化任务中止政策需要一系列的控制限制.
- 为单调的绩效控制政策确定条件.
- 在无人机电线检查案例研究中证明了拟议的风险控制政策的优越性.
结论:
- 动态性能调整和任务中止决策提高了运营性能,并为安全关键系统提供了奖励.
- 拟议的PCMA框架有效地降低了失败风险,同时增加了运营回报.
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