专制化溢出:当选举权威主义者时,选举会破坏跨境的选举信任
1Lecturer (Assistant Professor), School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Public opinion quarterly
|August 7, 2024
概括
邻近的独裁选举胜利可以通过破坏对民主和政治制度的支持来削弱国内选举信任. 这项研究显示了巴西的溢出效应.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 比较政治比较政治比较政治
背景情况:
- 选举信任文献主要侧重于国内因素.
- 当前的专制化浪潮具有国际层面.
- 跨境专制化的事件可能会影响民主规范和选举信任.
研究的目的:
- 调查一个邻国独裁的选举成功是否会削弱选举信任.
- 检查2018年巴西总统大选对哥伦比亚选举信任的影响.
- 确定这些溢出效应运作的机制.
主要方法:
- 在2018年巴西大选期间,利用美洲巴罗米特调查数据从哥伦比亚.
- 使用因果调解分析来测试拟议的机制.
- 分析Jair Bolsonaro的选举胜利对哥伦比亚公民政治态度的影响.
主要成果:
- 哥伦比亚公民的选举信任在巴西的Jair Bolsonaro胜利后显著受到侵蚀.
- 独裁者的成功减少了对哥伦比亚国内政治制度的支持.
- 哥伦比亚公民对民主的原则支持下降.
- 因果调解分析证实,减少对政治制度的支持和原则上对民主的支持调解了对选举信任的影响.
结论:
- 在国外取得的权威性选举成功可能会对邻国选举信任产生负面影响.
- 外部专制化的事件是影响国内选举信任的关键因素.
- 调查结果强调了民主规范的相互联系以及跨境政治趋势的影响.
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