国际贸易重塑了排放与经济增长的脱关系
Shaojian Wang1, Jieyu Wang2, Chuanglin Fang3
1School of Urban Design, School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Environmental science & technology
|August 7, 2024
概括
全球气候稳定需要将经济增长与二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放脱. 然而,包括贸易在内的基于消费的排放显示,实现这种脱的国家比基于生产的指标表明的要少.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化缓解努力旨在将经济增长与化石燃料二氧化碳排放脱.
- 传统的以生产为基础的排放会计忽略了国际贸易中嵌入的排放,可能误导了脱趋势.
研究的目的:
- 从1995年到2015年,评估经济增长与基于生产和基于消费的二氧化碳排放在159个国家的脱.
- 分析脱的驱动因素,并确定影响经济增长和排放之间的关系的因素.
主要方法:
- 对领土 (以生产为基础) 和以消费为基础的二氧化碳排放与159个国家的国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长进行比较分析.
- 应用U测试以统计验证国内排放,基于消费的排放和GDP增长之间的脱趋势.
- 确定主要驱动因素,如技术进步和排放强度的减少,在显示强烈脱的国家.
主要成果:
- 在1995年至2015年期间,29个国家显示了领土排放的脱,但只有19个国家实现了与经济增长并行的消费性排放的脱.
- 发达国家经常将国内排放脱,但不将与进口商品和服务相关的排放脱.
- 进口产生的排放量与人均国内生产总值 (GDP) 一致上升,而国内排放量显示出更强烈的脱趋势.
结论:
- 评估气候变化缓解需要基于消费的排放方法,这更好地反映了国际贸易的影响.
- 技术进步,特别是减少进口的排放强度,是实现真正脱的关键驱动力.
- 有效的全球脱需要国际合作和贸易伙伴之间的协调减缓战略.
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