使用学生t分布和蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究破裂岩石中关闭应力和裂纹启动应力
Hanjie Lin1, Yue Qiang1, Li Li1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Wanzhou, Chongqing, China.
PloS one
|August 7, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新方法来确定岩石应力,通过将传统技术与统计分析相结合来提高准确性. 这种新的方法减少了主观性和计算岩石封闭和裂纹启动应力时的错误.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 岩石机械学 岩石机械学
- 计算地质学的计算地质学
背景情况:
- 通过应力-应变曲线来确定岩石封闭和启动应力的传统方法存在主观性和重大错误.
- 现有的技术,如轴应变,断裂体积和经验价值方法,产生不同的结果.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种更准确,更稳定的方法来确定岩石封闭和启动应力.
- 克服传统压力分析方法固有的主观性和大错误的局限性.
主要方法:
- 使用三种传统方法的应力值建立了基础数据库:轴向应力,骨折体积和经验值.
- 应用Student t分布理论来建立一个置信区间,整合多种方法的优势.
- 在置信区间内利用蒙特卡洛随机模拟来确定趋同区间以提高准确性.
主要成果:
- 这三种传统方法对岩石封闭和启动应力产生了显著不同的值.
- 提出的方法表明偏向于多数字分布间隔,考虑到不同计算技术的偏好.
- 新方法避免了置信区间之外的极端值,表现出卓越的准确性和稳定性.
结论:
- 开发的概率方法为岩石应力确定传统方法提供了更可靠的替代方案.
- 这种统计驱动的技术提高了断裂岩石中关闭和启动应力计算的精度和一致性.
- 该方法能够整合多个数据源并避免异常值,这标志着岩石力学分析的重大进步.
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