日本的[a]pyrene的长期空间时间变化:环境度,人类暴露和健康风险的显著下降
Shin Araki1, Hikari Shimadera1, Satoru Chatani2
1Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita, 565-0871, Japan.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|August 7, 2024
概括
2000年至2018年,日本的[a]烯 (BaP) 含量显著下降了70%,从2000年到2018年,日本的[a]烯含量显著下降了70%. 这种减少致癌性空气污染物暴露与潜在的肺癌病例减少有关,有助于健康研究.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 甲 (BaP) 是已知的人类致癌物,但其在环境暴露水平上的健康影响需要进一步调查.
- 了解BaP的时空分布对于评估公共卫生风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在1公里分辨率下估计日本本佐[a]烯 (BaP) 的长期时空变化.
- 为环境暴露对健康影响的流行病学研究提供准确的BaP分布数据.
主要方法:
- 采用整体机器学习方法来估计年度BaP度.
- 使用的预测因素包括标准空气污染物,排放,气象数据,土地使用和交通变量.
- 使用基于位置的交叉验证验证验证模型性能,实现R2为0.693.
主要成果:
- 人口密集的地区呈现出更高的BaP水平和更大的时间减少.
- 工业区持续显示出更高的BaP度.
- 人口加权的BaP下降了约70%,从2000年的0.44 ng m−3降至2018年的0.12 ng m−3.
- 暴露在10−5以上的癌症风险水平 (0.12 ng m−3) 以下的比例在2018年达到67%.
结论:
- 这项研究成功地绘制了日本在20多年中精细分辨率的时空BaP变化.
- 估计BaP暴露的减少与肺癌发病率降低的风险相关.
- 产生的数据对未来关于环境BaP对健康影响的流行病学研究有价值.
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