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超越了厄尔尼诺对2023年大西洋和西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响
Jiuwei Zhao1, Ruifen Zhan2, Yuqing Wang3
1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China.
Nature communications
|August 7, 2024
概括
强烈的厄尔尼诺现象通常会抑制北大西洋热带气旋活动. 在2023年,创纪录的大西洋变暖和其他气候模式出乎意料地促进了风暴形成,覆盖了典型的厄尔尼诺现象影响.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺通常会抑制北大西洋热带气旋起源频率 (TCGF).
- 在TCGF异常中,西北-东南双极模式是西北太平洋 (WNP) 西部厄尔尼诺现象的特征.
- 2023年的厄尔尼诺现象表现出不典型的模式:活跃的北大西洋 (NA) 和抑制的WNP TC活动.
研究的目的:
- 调查2023年强烈的厄尔尼诺现象期间前所未有的热带气旋活动偏差的驱动因素.
- 确定北大西洋,太平洋南部模式 (PMM) 和全球变暖对观察到的TCGF异常的影响.
主要方法:
- 对2023年事件的观察数据的分析.
- 高分辨率全球气候模型实验以在各种条件下模拟TCGF.
主要成果:
- 创纪录的北大西洋温度显著增加了NA TCGF.
- 太平洋南部模式 (PMM) 和大西洋异常变暖共同导致了压制的WNP TCGF.
- 全球变暖在观察到的TCGF异常中发挥了作用,改变了典型的厄尔尼诺影响.
结论:
- 强烈的厄尔尼诺对区域TC活动的典型影响可以被其他气候模式显著改变.
- 创纪录的大西洋变暖和PMM阶段是2023年TC活动偏差的主要因素,掩盖了厄尔尼诺的通常影响.
- 热带气旋的起源是复杂的,受到多种相互作用的气候因素的影响,特别是在一个变暖的世界.
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