选民与国际货币基金组织:欧洲危机国家实验证据
Evelyne Hübscher1, Thomas Sattler2, Markus Wagner3
1Central European University, Vienna, Austria.
概括
接受国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 支持的国家的选民认为,IMF有助于解决危机,增加对不受欢迎的经济政策的支持. 然而,公众的认可取决于国际货币基金组织成功解决危机并缓解主权问题.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际关系 国际关系
背景情况:
- 国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 的干预经常与受援国政治不满的增加有关.
- 现有的研究很难将国际货币基金组织的影响与潜在的经济危机的影响分开.
- 了解公众对国际货币基金组织干预措施的看法对于政策有效性和政治稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过实验评估受危机影响的欧洲国家的选民如何看待国际货币基金组织干预的成本和收益.
- 将国际货币基金组织计划的影响与经济危机本身对公众论的影响分开.
- 分析影响选民支持国际货币基金组织支持的经济政策的因素.
主要方法:
- 在希腊,爱尔兰,葡萄牙和西班牙进行了调查实验.
- 直接衡量选民对国际货币基金组织干预属性的评价,包括危机解决和国家主权.
- 利用比较跨国分析来识别公众认知的差异.
主要成果:
- 选民预计,IMF的干预将更有效地解决经济危机.
- 选民的一个重大担忧是,与国际货币基金组织计划相关的国家主权的损失.
- 对危机解决的信心通常超过了对主权的担忧,导致对IMF支持的政策的支持增加.
结论:
- 国际货币基金组织的干预可以加强公众对必要但不受欢迎的经济改革的支持.
- 对国际货币基金组织计划的持续公共支持取决于该基金在解决危机方面取得的成功.
- 跨国差异突出了定制沟通的重要性,并证明了在管理公众认知方面的有效性.
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