新西兰的能源安全及其决定因素
1Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd), Titokorangi Drive (Formerly Longmile Road), Rotorua, 3046, New Zealand. saeedsolaymani@gmail.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 8, 2024
概括
新西兰新西兰新西兰新西兰
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 应用性计量经济学
背景情况:
- 新西兰的能源部门严重依赖进口化石燃料 (38%).
- 能源需求不断增长,资源稀缺和价格波动加剧了能源安全的担忧.
- 关于新西兰特有的能源安全决定因素的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 确定新西兰能源安全的关键决定因素.
- 分析能源安全及其影响因素之间的长期关系和因果关系.
- 为明智的能源政策决策提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 使用动态自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型.
- 雇佣时间序列数据涵盖1978年至2021年.
- 进行了因果关系分析和模拟冲击反应能力.
主要成果:
- 建立了能源安全和能源强度,可再生能源,化石燃料消耗和全球石油价格之间的长期关系.
- 实际GDP和可再生能源消费对能源安全产生积极影响;化石燃料使用和石油价格对能源安全产生负面影响.
- 因果关系从实际GDP,化石燃料使用和可再生能源到能源安全;能源强度具有双向关系.
结论:
- 经济增长和采用可再生能源对于加强新西兰的能源安全至关重要.
- 减少对化石燃料的依赖至关重要,因为它会对能源安全产生负面影响.
- 与化石燃料消耗和经济增长等国内因素相比,全球油价冲击的影响相对较小.
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