在小区域层面上实时预测与温度相关的过度死亡率:朝着一个操作框架
Malcolm N Mistry1,2, Antonio Gasparrini1
1Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Environmental research, health : ERH
|August 9, 2024
概括
一个新的框架使用天气数据和风险函数预测了与当地温度相关的过度死亡. 该工具有助于公共卫生规划和资源分配,以应对热浪和其他环境健康风险.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 有效的公共卫生干预需要实时环境健康影响监测和预测工具.
- 现有的系统缺乏一个全面的,可扩展的解决方案来预测与当地温度相关的过度死亡.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个灵活的操作框架,在当地范围内实时预测与温度相关的过度死亡.
- 将天气预报与局部温度死亡风险功能结合起来.
主要方法:
- 利用来自欧洲气象中心的高分辨率温度预报.
- 使用环境流行病学模型开发了特定区域的温度死亡风险函数.
- 应用框架来预测2022年7月在英格兰和威尔士的热浪期间的过度死亡率.
主要成果:
- 展示了一个实时应用程序,预测在小地理区域预期的与温度相关的过度死亡.
- 输出提供了预期的多余死亡在不同的领先时间,使自动绘图.
- 该框架可以适应其他与天气有关的健康风险和地理区域.
结论:
- 拟议的框架解决了全球预测短期环境健康负担的迫切需要.
- 促进预防行动和公共卫生资源的分配,特别是在资源有限的地区.
- 提高全球公共卫生系统对极端温度事件的抵御力.
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