用多个变量优化的MaxEnt模型预测大豆豆Leguminivora glycinivorella (Matsumura) 的息地适宜性
Mingsheng Yang1,2,3, Ying Wang2, Weili Ding1
1College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou, Henan, P. R. China.
Journal of economic entomology
|August 9, 2024
概括
大豆 (Leguminivora glycinivorella) 主要居住在东亚. 气候,特别是同热度,对其分布有很大影响,未来预计将略微向北扩张.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
- 生态建模 生态建模
背景情况:
- 大豆 (Glycine max) 是全球蛋白质和油的重要来源.
- 豆虫 (Leguminivora glycinivorella) 对大豆生产构成重大威胁.
- 了解害虫分布对于有效的农业管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测大豆豆的潜在分布.
- 确定驱动其息地适宜性的关键环境因素.
- 在不断变化的条件下预测未来的分配转移.
主要方法:
- 使用了优化的MaxEnt建模方法.
- 纳入生物气候,土地利用和宿主植物变量.
- 全球预测的当前和未来的潜在分布.
主要成果:
- 目前适合息地集中在中国,朝鲜半岛和日本.
- 同热度 (BIO03) 被确定为一个关键的生物气候预测因素.
- 未来的预测表明,适合区域略微向北扩张,总体尺寸稳定.
结论:
- 生物气候和非气候因素对于模拟害虫分布至关重要.
- 温度,特别是异热度,在息地适宜性方面发挥着重要作用.
- 预测的分布模式为管理Leguminivora glycinivorella爆发提供了指导.
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