一种基于替代模型的方法,用于适应性选择最佳的交通冲突预测模型
Dan Wu1, Jaeyoung Jay Lee1, Ye Li1
1School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, PR China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|August 9, 2024
概括
一种新的基于替代模型的最佳预测模型选择 (SM-OPMS) 方法有效地识别出最佳的实时交通冲突预测模型. 这种方法显著提高了计算速度,同时保持了高预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 实时交通冲突预测需要从许多选项中选择最佳模型.
- 平衡计算效率和预测精度对于有效的模型选择至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种定量分析方法,以适应性选择最佳的实时冲突预测模型.
- 引入基于替代模型的最佳预测模型选择 (SM-OPMS) 以加速和精确的模型评估.
主要方法:
- 开发了SM-OPMS分析框架.
- 利用来自HighD数据集的真实车辆轨迹数据.
- 用于冲突检测的时间到碰撞 (TTC) 和减速率以避免碰撞 (DRAC).
主要成果:
- 与基于计数的方法相比,SM-OPMS显著提高了高达94.03%的计算效率.
- 预测精度保持在最高降低仅为7.91%的水平.
- 在最佳模型中的冲突预测中确定了变量的重要性.
结论:
- 在交通场景中,SM-OPMS为最佳预测模型选择提供了卓越的方法.
- 该方法有效地平衡了计算效率和预测精度.
- 预计SM-OPMS将推进实时冲突预测系统.
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