以概率分布模型为指导的塑料废物排放减少场景,以避免到2050年代增加海洋塑料污染
Chisa Higuchi1, Atsuhiko Isobe1
1Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, 6-1 Kasuga-Koen, Kasuga 816-8580, Japan.
Marine pollution bulletin
|August 9, 2024
概括
海洋塑料污染是一个日益严重的全球威胁. 到2035年将塑料废弃物排放量减少32%,至关重要的是,到2050年实现零额外污染.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 污染控制 污染控制
背景情况:
- 海洋塑料污染是一个重大且不断升级的全球问题.
- 目前的塑料垃圾排放量,如果不加以控制,将使海洋污染恶化.
- 经济增长往往与增加的塑料废物产生有关.
研究的目的:
- 在各种未来排放场景下预测海洋巨型塑料和微型塑料的丰富性.
- 模拟海洋上层塑料污染的产生,运输和清除过程.
- 为实现大阪蓝海愿景的战略提供信息,即到2050年实现零额外的海洋塑料污染.
主要方法:
- 开发基于粒子跟踪的概率分布模型.
- 从陆地到海的塑料废物排放的模拟.
- 分析影响塑料命运的海洋学过程.
主要成果:
- 如果目前的排放趋势继续下去,海洋塑料污染的预计增加.
- 确定了到2035年减少塑料废物排放的关键目标,以实现2050年零污染目标.
- 量化了必要的减排 (到2035年与2019年相比至少32%).
结论:
- 需要采取严格的措施来减轻海洋塑料污染.
- 像"系统变化"或"改进废物管理"这样的场景对于实现2050年目标至关重要.
- 为了打击海洋污染,迫切需要大幅减少塑料废物排放量.
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