从传统的山体滑坡事件建模转向使用"玻璃盒"机器学习的场景估计
Francesco Caleca1, Pierluigi Confuorto1, Federico Raspini1
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
The Science of the total environment
|August 9, 2024
概括
极端降雨事件正在增加山体滑坡的风险. 一个新的"玻璃盒"机器学习模型将降雨异常确定为滑坡易感性的关键预测因素,有助于未来的风险评估.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 极端降雨事件是主要的山体滑坡触发因素.
- 气候变化正在加剧降雨事件,增加山体滑坡频率和相关风险.
- 了解山体滑坡的易感性对于社区安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析极端降雨和山体滑坡发生之间的关系.
- 使用透明的"玻璃盒"机器学习方法来建模山体滑坡易感性.
- 为了确定滑坡事件的关键降雨相关预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用一个可解释的提升机器 (EBM),一个"玻璃盒"模型,用于透明的山体滑坡易感性建模.
- 整合了一个"降雨异常"预测器,以量化相对于历史模式的极端事件强度.
- 应用空间变量选择和模型评估技术.
主要成果:
- "降雨异常"被确定为预测山体滑坡易感性的最重要的变量.
- 该模型成功地绘制了基于极端降雨的山体滑坡发生概率.
- 降雨异常的动态性质允许基于场景的滑坡风险估计.
结论:
- 可解释的推进机器提供了对山体滑坡触发因素的透明见解.
- 降雨异常是评估山体滑坡易感性的关键因素.
- 这种方法可以为易发生山体滑坡的地区制定气候变化适应战略.
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