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使用FloodCast进行大规模的洪水建模和预测
Qingsong Xu1, Yilei Shi2, Jonathan L Bamber3
1Data Science in Earth Observation, Technical University of Munich, Munich 80333, Germany.
Water research
|August 10, 2024
概括
一个新的框架FloodCast,使用多个卫星数据和一个新的几何适应神经解答器来增强洪水预测. 该系统提供快速,准确和大规模的洪水预报,改进了危险警告.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源水文与水资源
- 地理空间科学和遥感技术
- 计算科学与工程 计算科学与工程
背景情况:
- 传统的大规模水力动力学模型面临着由于固定电网,高计算成本以及准确的洪水预测和及时危险警告的挑战所带来的局限性.
- 准确和高效的洪水建模对于灾难准备和应对至关重要,尤其是在面对日益增加的气候变化和极端天气事件时.
研究的目的:
- 为大规模应用开发一个快速,稳定,准确,分辨率不变和几何适应的洪水建模和预测框架.
- 将多卫星观测与先进的水力动力学建模相结合,以提高洪水预测能力.
- 为了实现实时,高精度的洪水危险预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了FloodCast框架,包含两个模块:多卫星观测 (无监督变化检测,降雨分析) 和水力动力学建模.
- 引入了几何适应物理信息神经解答器 (GeoPINS) 与富里埃神经运算符,用于分辨率不变和无数据建模.
- 采用了对长期时间序列和广泛空间域的序列对序列GeoPINS模型,使用2022年巴基斯坦洪水数据和SAR图像进行验证.
主要成果:
- GeoPINS在各个领域的部分微分方程中表现出强的表现.
- 序列对序列的GeoPINS模型在高水位期间与传统方法达成高度一致.
- 对比分析显示,GeoPINS在模拟洪水深度方面表现优于传统的水力动力学,14天模拟的平均MAPE为14.93%和MAE为0.0610m.
结论:
- 洪水Cast框架在大规模洪水建模和预测方面取得了重大进展.
- 在几何适应物理信息的神经解决器 (GeoPINS) 提供了一个计算效率高和精确的替代传统方法.
- 开发的系统能够高精度,实时预测洪水危险,这对于有效的灾害管理至关重要.
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