在奥地利,在不同的气候情景下,由于臭氧而导致的死亡人数
Hanns Moshammer1,2, Monika Mayer3, Harald Rieder3
1Department of Environmental Health, Center for Public Health, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
European journal of public health
|August 10, 2024
概括
热带层臭氧,一个公共卫生问题,预计将增加由于气候变化和人口趋势在奥地利的死亡人数. 国家减排是缓解臭氧相关死亡率的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 热带层臭氧是欧洲重要的空气污染物,对公众健康产生不利影响.
- 预计气候变化将加剧臭氧的形成,从而构成未来的健康风险.
- 由于人口结构的变化,奥地利面临着日益增加的死亡率,可能会增加由臭氧造成的死亡.
研究的目的:
- 在奥地利进行全国性的健康影响评估,以估计每年与臭氧有关的死亡人数.
- 为了比较不同的方法来估计臭氧造成的死亡率.
- 评估人口趋势和气候变化情景对未来臭氧相关死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用奥地利过去和预测的年度总死亡率数据.
- 员工模拟了每日臭氧度,专注于最大的1小时平均值.
- 在各种温室气体排放场景下进行健康影响评估 (例如,RCP8.5与RCP2.6).
主要成果:
- 人口趋势预计将增加整体死亡率,导致到2055年,更多的臭氧死亡.
- 较高的温室气体排放场景显著增加了与臭氧相关的死亡,主要是由国家前体排放驱动的.
- 根据模型,高排放场景和低排放场景之间的年度臭氧相关死亡人数差异估计为250-340例.
结论:
- 臭氧相关死亡率的增加更多地受到国家缓解战略的影响,而不是全球气候变化.
- 国家减排对于改善当地空气质量和公共健康至关重要.
- 实施国家排放控制措施将对大气化学和健康结果产生重大有益影响.
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