在气候变化下的大熊猫息地竹林动态保护的综合框架
Xiaotong Shang1, Weirui Qin2, Biao Yang3
1Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, School of Life Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 11, 2024
概括
气候变化可能会扩大中国西南部的竹林,支持大熊猫种群. 然而,竹子的多样性和碳储存将会波动,需要对亚山生态系统进行动态保护.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对森林生物多样性和碳储存构成重大威胁,特别是在中国西南部山区.
- 竹子是大熊猫 (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) 的重要食物来源和息地,也是潜在的碳汇.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候场景下,预测四川省20种大熊猫食的竹子物种的分布变化.
- 评估气候变化对竹子社区多样性,分布,大熊猫食物资源和森林碳储存的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt模型来预测竹子物种分布的变化.
- 采用高分辨率 (30m) 的气候数据用于未来的气候场景.
- 计算了竹子社区多样性,分布区域,粮食资源和碳储存的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到21世纪末,竹子社区面积将扩大17.94%至60.88%.
- 预测竹子资源可以支持日益增长的大熊猫种群 (预计到2140-2150年将有6533只).
- 在竹子物种多样性和碳储存中观察到时间和空间的异步波动.
结论:
- 气候变化对竹林的影响对大熊猫的保护和碳储存构成挑战.
- 为大熊猫息地提出了一个动态的,适应性的保护管理框架.
- 将气候变化纳入保护战略对于危物种和全球气候行动至关重要.
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