赛内表现波动:评估和观察到的与预期的范围在乒乓球
Ruizhi Liu1,2, Martin Lames2
1China Table Tennis College, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai, China.
Journal of human kinetics
|August 12, 2024
概括
乒乓球运动员在比赛中表现出显著的表现波动,通过动态指标来衡量. 大多数比赛与预期的统计模式保持一致,突出显示了体育表现需要动态分析的必要性.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
- 定量分析 定量分析
背景情况:
- 评估游戏中的表现动态对于了解运动员的能力至关重要.
- 传统的绩效指标往往忽略了比赛中的实时波动.
- 乒乓球提供了一个动态的环境来研究球员表现的变化.
研究的目的:
- 用一个新的动态指标量化乒乓球比赛中的比赛内表现波动.
- 将经验性能波动与理论预期分布进行比较.
- 调查精英乒乓球运动员对预期表现模式的偏差.
主要方法:
- 使用动态绩效指标 (双移动平均线) 在拉力赢/输序列上.
- 采用二项分布和蒙特卡洛模拟来建模预期的指标分布.
- 分析了2020年东京奥运会的211场单场比赛.
主要成果:
- 观察到相当大的比赛内表现波动 (平均IQR=0.27).
- 大多数匹配 (210/211) 并没有显著偏离预期的双移动平均分布.
- 在7.6%的匹配中 (16/211),发现了位的显著偏差.
结论:
- 乒乓球比赛中的比赛内表现动态很重要,应该在分析中考虑.
- 球员的表现在很大程度上符合比赛期间预期的统计学波动.
- 这项研究表明,在各种体育运动和指标中,动态绩效分析至关重要.
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