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烟草零售商密度和吸烟率之间的供需效应
Shelley D Golden1,2, Tzy-Mey Kuo2, Todd Combs3
1Health Behavior, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA sgolden@email.unc.edu.
Tobacco control
|August 12, 2024
概括
更高的烟草零售商密度与吸烟率的增加有关,供需两者都有作用. 限制零售商的入口可以减少吸烟,但减少需求的干预也至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 控制烟草的控制方式
背景情况:
- 有更多烟草零售商的地理区域往往呈现出更高的吸烟率.
- 烟草零售商密度和吸烟率之间的因果关系尚不清楚,人们在争论零售商是否聚集在需求高的地区,或者是否可用性驱动消费.
研究的目的:
- 调查消费者需求和烟草供应在烟草零售商密度和吸烟率之间的纵向,面积相关性中的不同作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了3080个美国县 (2000-2010年) 的年度成年吸烟流行数据 (美国行为风险因素监测系统) 和烟草零售商密度估计 (国家建立时间序列).
- 采用随机拦截交叉滞后面板模型来分析这些关系,使用两个零售商密度指标:人均和土地面积.
主要成果:
- 基于人口和土地面积的模型都显示了对消费者需求和烟草供应的重大影响.
- 在以人口为基础的模型中,先前吸烟率对后续零售商密度的影响大约是零售商密度对后续吸烟率的影响的两倍.
- 基于土地面积的模型显示,供应效应 (零售商密度对吸烟率的影响) 与需求效应 (吸烟率对零售商密度的影响) 相比要大得多.
结论:
- 旨在限制零售烟草制品的使用权的政策显示出降低吸烟率的潜力.
- 将供应侧限制与针对消费者需求的干预措施相结合,对于全面的烟草控制战略至关重要.
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