一种负二项式林德利方法,考虑时空效应,用于模拟过多零的交通事故频率
Wencheng Wang1, Yang Yang2, Xiaobao Yang3
1School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning & Design, Beijing 100045, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|August 13, 2024
概括
对交通事故频率的统计分析揭示了显著的空间相关性. 一个负二项的林德利时空模型有效地处理了事故数据中的多余零,提高了交通安全规划的预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 道路安全分析 道路安全分析
背景情况:
- 交通事故数据显示出空间和时间的相关性,以及多余的零点,使准确的建模复杂化.
- 在统计分析中忽视这些特征可能会导致模型性能差,交通安全问题得出错误的结论.
- 有效的交通安全规划需要强大的模型,以考虑事故数据的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟农村双向双车道道路的交通事故频率,考虑时空效应.
- 通过使用先进的统计方法来解决事故数据中多余的零和异质性的问题.
- 分析特定道路特征对碰撞频率的影响.
主要方法:
- 对碰撞频率的负双项林德利时空效应模型的开发.
- 该模型应用于宾夕法尼亚州四个农村县的交通事故数据.
- 分析影响碰撞发生的空间相关性,时间效应和道路特征.
主要成果:
- 在相邻路段的撞车频率之间发现了显著的空间相关性.
- 与标准负二项式模型相比,负二项式林德利模型在处理多余的零值方面表现优异.
- 结合空间相关性和时间条件自回归效应的模型提供了最适合观察到的数据.
结论:
- 时空建模对于准确的交通事故频率分析至关重要.
- 道路段有较高的限速和良好的可见性显示较低的碰撞频率.
- 平均转角度和交叉点密度的增加与水平曲线上的较高碰撞频率相关.
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