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"三水"运载能力和路径演变研究的综合评估:黄河流域的一个案例
Zixuan Zhang1, Yue Li1, Yangxi Lv1
1College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China.
The Science of the total environment
|August 13, 2024
概括
黄河盆地 黄河盆地
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 生态系统健康 生态系统健康
背景情况:
- 传统的承载能力研究对于盆地管理来说是不够的.
- 需要一个整体的方法,整合水资源,环境和生态.
- 黄河流域 (YRB) 面临着复杂的水系统挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在YRB中建造和评估"三水"系统承载能力 (TWSCC).
- 分析时空变化,并为TWSCC提供早期警告.
- 为了模拟未来的TWSCC趋势,并探索发展途径.
主要方法:
- 开发了"三水"承载能力的评估指数系统.
- 应用权-TOPSIS,系统综合指数评估和ArcGIS.
- 利用系统动力学 (SD) 建模用于未来的预测.
主要成果:
- 在YRB的TWSCC从2005年到2020年处于过载状态,有"严重"或"中等"警告.
- 到2035年,所有四个发展途径都改善了TWSCC.
- 一条以绿色环境保护为导向的道路实现了安全的承载能力.
结论:
- 对"三水"的综合评估对于盆地管理至关重要.
- 年轻人机关需要持续的监测和适应性战略.
- 可持续发展途径可以提高盆地承载能力.
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