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利用贝叶斯网络对台湾中部低海拔茶园的气候风险分析

Yung-Chieh Wang¹, Chien-Teh Chen², Rui-Yu Li¹

¹Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan.

Environmental monitoring and assessment

|August 14, 2024

概括

贝叶斯网络模型准确地评估了气候变化的茶园风险,将干旱确定为主要威胁. 自然农业实践显示灾难脆弱性较低,为未来茶叶种植园管理提供了洞察力.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学
环境风险评估环境风险评估

背景情况:

全球变暖和极端天气事件对台湾重要的茶叶产业构成重大威胁,造成经济损失.
现有的茶园管理缺乏全面的模型来预测和减轻气候变化影响.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一个全面的贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型,用于评估茶园中的气候变化风险.
在各种气候场景下,确定影响茶树损害和产量减少的关键因素.
为了比较不同农业实践的灾难风险抵御能力.

主要方法:

开发了一个贝叶斯网络 (BN) 模型,包括气象数据,灾害事件,茶园环境因素和农业实践.
利用农民采访和政府间气候变化小组第五次评估报告 (IPCC AR5) 框架构建风险指标.
通过使用灵敏度分析和根据不同的全球气候模型 (GCM) 预测的影响来验证模型.

主要成果:

在预测茶树损坏和产量减少方面,BN模型达到92%以上的准确性.
干旱被确定为最重要的风险,可能导致高达41%的茶树严重损坏和40%的产量减少.
与传统和有机农业方法相比,自然农业的灾难风险较低.

结论:

开发的茶园风险评估模型为应对气候变化的灾害管理和规划提供了宝贵的工具.
调查结果强调了对适应性战略的关键需求,特别是侧重于抗旱能力和促进自然农业实践.

关键词:

农学方法农学方法贝叶斯的信念网络是贝叶斯的信念网络.全球气候模型 (GCMs) 是一种全球气候模型.气象危险风险风险气象危险风险代表性度途径 (RCPs) 是指代表性的度途径.

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