在中国感冒期间流感感染风险增加:国家时间序列研究
Haitao Wang1,2, Mengjie Geng3, Tamara Schikowski4
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|August 14, 2024
概括
寒冷时期在中国显著增加流感风险,特别是在江南地区和人口密的城市地区. 公共卫生政策应考虑这些区域和社会经济差异,以有效预防流感.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 以前的研究表明,感冒事件对流感传播的不利影响.
- 关键因素,如感冒时期的特征和它们对流感的影响的区域差异,仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 在中国大陆系统评估感冒和流感发病率之间的关联.
- 探索寒冷时期的特征和区域社会经济因素如何改变这种关联.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国325个地点 (2014-2019) 的每日流感监测数据.
- 根据温度值和持续时间,采用了15个寒冷周期的定义.
- 应用分布式滞后线性模型和元回归来分析短期影响和区域/社会经济变化.
主要成果:
- 感冒症状显著增加了流感风险 (相对风险:3.35).
- 影响在更高的温度值和中冷季期间更为明显.
- 江南地区显示较高的脆弱性 (RR:7.36),以及与城市人口密度,GDP和城市化相关的效应.
结论:
- 感冒在中国对季节性流感造成了相当大的健康负担.
- 寒流影响的区域和社会经济差异需要量身定制的公共卫生战略.
- 这些发现可以为制定特定区域的政策提供信息,以减轻与寒冷天气相关的流感风险.
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