在马里气候变化下优化有机棉花的堆肥施肥类型,日期和剂量:一项建模研究
Ginette Dembélé1, Romain Loison2,3,4, Amadou Traoré1
1Regional Agricultural Research Center, Institute of Rural Economy (IER), Sotuba, Bamako, Mali.
PloS one
|August 14, 2024
概括
尽管气候变化,马里的有机棉花农业可以得到改善. 在5月中旬以每公7.5的速度应用小反动物堆肥,可以在各种气候情景下优化未来的产量.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,土壤退化和低于最佳的管理实践,马里有机棉花产量正在下降.
- 将有机农业系统适应预计的气候变化对于粮食安全和该地区的经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化情景下,确定最佳的堆肥应用策略 (类型,日期,剂量) 以提高马里有机棉的产量.
- 评估DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton模型在不同气候条件下模拟有机棉花生长和产量的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年的实验数据进行DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton模型的校准和验证.
- 在RCP4.5和RCP8.5场景下使用的GFDL-ESM2M气候模型数据用于未来的天气预测 (2020-2079).
- 评估模型性能,使用表现和收益率的规范化根平均平方误差 (nRMSE) 等指标.
主要成果:
- DSSAT模型准确地模拟了棉花的现象学 (化,成熟度),nRMSE<4%.
- 模拟种子棉花产量模型具有中等准确性 (nRMSE 26%校准,20.3%评估).
- 从5月中旬开始,在每公7.5的小型反动物堆肥中应用,在各种气候场景中持续提高了产量,超过75%的模拟超过2000公斤/公.
结论:
- 最佳的堆肥管理,特别是5月中旬的小反动物堆肥7.5t/ha的应用,可以显著提高马里有机棉的产量.
- DSSAT作物模型是预测气候变化和管理策略对有机棉花生产的影响的宝贵工具.
- 积极的适应战略对于维持和提高有机棉花农业在马里气候变化中的适应能力至关重要.
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