中国护士人才需求预测基于灰色GM (1,1) 模型:模型开发研究
1Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, Institute of Nursing Research, School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei, China.
Asian/Pacific Island nursing journal
|August 14, 2024
概括
由于人口老龄化,中国面临着日益严重的护士短缺问题. 这项研究预测,在未来十年,对护士和老年护士的需求将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 全球护理人员短缺因人口老龄化而加剧,对中国的医疗保健质量构成重大威胁.
- 护理人力资源不足是中国居民医疗服务的主要问题.
- 预测护理人员需求对于应对这些挑战至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来10年中国对护理劳动力和专业老年护士的需求.
- 为中国医疗机构的健康政策制定提供科学基础.
- 解决护理人员短缺这一关键问题.
主要方法:
- 使用灰色GM (1,1) 预测模型.
- 雇员数据来自中国统计年鉴2022年.
- 预计从2024年到2033年对护理工作和老年护士的需求.
主要成果:
- 预计从2024年到2033年,对整体护理劳动力的需求将稳步增加.
- 预计对专业老年护士的需求将大幅增加.
- 需求增长与持续的人口增长和老龄化趋势有关.
结论:
- 该研究为发展中国医疗保健劳动力体系提供了一个参考.
- 调查结果支持政府参与医疗保健劳动力规划.
- 为政策制定和资源分配提供数据驱动的见解.
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