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在数学瘤模型中,使用贝叶斯推理对受审查数据的实用参数识别和处理是贝叶斯推理
Jamie Porthiyas1, Daniel Nussey1, Catherine A A Beauchemin2,3
1Department of Mathematics, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada.
NPJ systems biology and applications
|August 14, 2024
概括
在机械数学模型 (MMs) 中对瘤生长进行仔细的参数估计至关重要. 适当地包括受审查的数据,并考虑先前的选择,可以防止偏见的预测和瘤动态的误导性解释.
科学领域:
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 计算瘤学计算瘤学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 机械数学模型 (MMs) 对于理解和预测瘤生长动态至关重要.
- 从实验数据中估计参数是应用MMs的一个关键步骤.
- 在参数估计过程中做出的决定可以显著影响模型结果.
研究的目的:
- 调查瘤生长MMs参数估计中被忽视的决策的影响.
- 提出一个框架,将被审查的瘤体积数据 (在检测限制之外) 纳入其中.
- 分析先前选择对参数后分布和模型预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了五个具有不同参数复杂性的机械数学模型.
- 开发并应用了一个框架,包括审查的瘤体积测量.
- 检查了不同先前分布对参数估计的影响.
主要成果:
- 排除受审查的数据导致初始瘤体积的高估和负载能力的低估.
- 忽视被审查的数据会导致在第一次测量之前和最后一次测量之后,不准确的瘤体积预测.
- 选择先前分布对后来的参数分布和模型解释产生重大影响.
结论:
- 仔细考虑参数估计选择,特别是关于被审查的数据,对于准确的瘤生长建模至关重要.
- 拟议的包含被审查数据的框架提高了机械数学模型的可靠性.
- 仅以可信的间隔报告点估计 (最可能的参数) 可能会误导;建议进行全面分析.
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