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通过公民科学数据,对特有马拉巴树 (Pedostibes tuberculosus) 的当前分布和未来息地适应性模型进行审查

C K Aravind^1,2,3, Hebbar Priti^4,5, S Harikrishnan⁶

¹Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, 560012, India. aravindck09@gmail.com.

Scientific reports

|August 14, 2024

概括

气候变化威胁着印度的马拉巴树 (Pedostibes tuberculosus). 公民科学数据揭示了潜在的息地丧失,突出了扩大保护工作的必要性,超出目前的保护区.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护科学保护科学

背景情况:

两动物,包括马拉巴树 (Pedostibes tuberculosus),由于特定的生态需求和有限的分散,对气候变化非常敏感.
生物多样性丧失在很大程度上是由气候变化驱动的,它影响了诸如西加特山脉这样的生物多样性热点中的特有物种.

研究的目的:

预测气候变化对西加特山脉内地的马拉巴树 (Pedostibes tuberculosus) 的影响.
在未来的气候场景下,评估当前保护区 (PA) 对于马拉巴树保护的适宜性.
评估公民科学数据对了解难以捉摸的物种分布的有用性.

主要方法:

利用来自"绘制马拉巴尔树"计划的公民科学数据来进行物种分布建模.
在当前和未来的气候场景 (2061-2080) 下,为两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 采用了MaxEnt (MEM) 和Ensemble (ESM) 建模方法.
分析了生物气候变量,确定年度降水量是最有影响力的因素.

主要成果:

预计马拉巴树适合息地的显著变化,高排放场景表明PA内的范围大幅减少.
确定年度降水量作为影响物种分布的关键生物气候变量.
发现现有的PA可能不足以实现长期保护,其中一个显著的息地转移到西南部的加特山脉.

结论:

气候变化对马拉巴树构成相当大的威胁,可能限制其分布和持续性.
现有的保护区需要重新评估和潜在的扩张,以有效地保护马拉巴树的息地.
公民科学数据是生态建模和保护马拉巴尔树等难以捉摸的物种的宝贵资源.

关键词:

两动物两动物公民科学是公民科学.地方性青的.印度印度印度种类分布模型种类分布模型西方高地是西方高地的一座山脉.

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