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Updated: Jun 16, 2025

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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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在银行资本要求中考虑气候转型风险
Lucia Alessi1, Erica Francesca Di Girolamo1, Andrea Pagano1
1European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Italy.
概括
气候转型风险可以适度增加银行损失,但高碳资产的火销可能会引发系统性危机. 平均0.9%的资本缓冲可以保护欧盟银行业.
科学领域:
- 银行业和金融稳定 金融稳定
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 系统风险分析 系统风险分析
背景情况:
- 气候转型风险对金融机构构成威胁.
- 银行资产负债表容易受到与气候有关的金融冲击.
- 现有的框架可能无法完全捕捉过渡风险的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候转型风险对银行资产负债表的影响.
- 在不同的宏观经济情景下分析系统危机的潜力.
- 确定减轻过渡风险影响的资本要求.
主要方法:
- 利用风格化的模拟模型进行气候应激测试.
- 研究了不同过渡风险水平对银行损失的影响.
- 通过火销售机制模拟了冲击的放大.
主要成果:
- 中等至高的过渡风险在紧张的宏观经济情景中适度增加了银行损失.
- 高碳资产13%的风险可能会在良性情景中引发系统性危机.
- 过渡风险集中在银行业.
结论:
- 一个小额额的额外资本缓冲 (风险加权资产的0.9%) 可以保护欧盟银行业.
- 需要政策干预来管理集中过渡风险.
- 在气候变化背景下,积极的资本管理对于金融稳定至关重要.
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