量化溢出减少计划对人类健康的风险
Scott L Nuismer1, Andrew J Basinski2, Courtney L Schreiner3
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America.
减少动物传播的传播可能会矛盾地增加疾病负担,如果感染随着年龄的增长变得更严重. 如果免疫力减弱,这种效果不太可能发生,但随着时间的推移,立即的公共健康收益可能会减少.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 传染病的数学建模传染病的数学建模
- 动物传染病传播动物传染病
背景情况:
- 减少动物传染病原体的溢出是预防人类疾病和流行病的关键策略.
- 溢出减少对人类健康的直接好处是显而易见的.
- 存在对人类健康产生反直觉的负面长期后果的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 探索在哪些条件下减少动物传染性溢出可能导致意外的负面健康后果.
- 调查依赖年龄的疾病严重程度在减少溢出影响的背景下发挥的作用.
- 评估免疫力下降和再感染对这些结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用数学模型和计算机模拟.
- 探索了疾病严重程度随着感染时的年龄增加的系统.
- 参数化模型与西非拉萨病毒的已公布数据.
主要成果:
- 减少溢出效应会增加感染时的平均年龄,如果严重程度随着年龄的增长而迅速升级,可能会增加人口一级的疾病负担.
- 免疫力下降和再感染的可能性大大降低了溢出减少对健康产生负面影响的可能性.
- 对于拉萨病毒,负面结果是可能的,但可能仅限于异常强烈的溢出影响的人群.
结论:
- 溢出减少计划的不利后果通常不太可能,但有可能.
- 观察到的公共卫生收益可能会随着免疫力的年龄结构重新平衡而消失,导致感染率降低.
- 长期的健康影响取决于溢出强度,年龄相关的疾病严重程度和免疫力学之间的相互作用.
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