一种新的方法来选择时间变化的多变量时间序列模型,用于监测传染病
Jie Yu1, Huimin Wang1, Miaoshuang Chen1
1West China School of Public Health / West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China.
这项研究引入了新的指标,用于选择可变时间的多变量时间序列 (MTS) 模型用于传染病监测. 这些发现指导了基于时空变化的TVP-SV-VAR和tvvarGAM模型之间的选择,以获得准确的早期预警.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 准确的传染病监测依赖于了解跨区域传播动态.
- 多变量时间序列 (MTS) 模型用于网络构建,但通常假定常数参数,限制了早期预警的准确性.
- 研究了时间变化的MTS模型,以应对疾病传播率的动态变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估时间变化的MTS模型在多区域传染病监测中的适用性.
- 探索和验证时间变化的参数-随机波动-向量自回归 (TVP-SV-VAR) 和时间变化的VAR (tvvarGAM) 模型的适用条件.
- 在传染病监测中引入新的模型选择指标.
主要方法:
- 在各种时空变化场景下,TVP-SV-VAR和tvvarGAM模型的比较.
- 引入时间延迟系数和空间稀疏性指标用于模型选择.
- 模拟研究和一种类似流感的病例应用在中国四川省.
主要成果:
- TVP-SV-VAR模型的表现优于tvvarGAM,其余值和估计误差较小,空间时间变化较低 (时间延迟系数:0.1-0.2,空间散度:0.1-0.3).
- 在空间时间变化增加的情况下,tvvarGAM模型是可取的 (时间延迟系数:0.2-0.3,空间稀疏性:0.6-0.9).
结论:
- 考虑时空变化对于选择适当的传染病监测模型至关重要.
- 新的指标 (时间延迟系数,空间稀疏) 提高了传染病监测的准确性和有效性.
- 拟议的方法对改善各种应用中的时间变化的MTS分析具有更广泛的意义.
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