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在中国黑龙江农业碳排放的分解和情景分析

Luyang Zhang^1,2, Junyan Chu¹, Haiyang You¹

¹School of Resources and Environment, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.

|August 16, 2024

概括

黑龙江省农业碳排放在2016年达到峰值. 预计未来的减少将由大米种植减少和改善的农业实践驱动,到2030年潜在下降幅度高达4.52%.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

黑龙江省是中国主要的农业地区,面临着大量的碳排放.
了解这些排放的驱动因素和未来的轨迹对于缓解努力至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了估计1993年至2020年在黑龙江的农业碳排放量.
分析影响因素,预测到2030年农业碳排放的未来趋势.

主要方法:

排放因子方法用于历史估计 (1993-2020).
逻辑平均分数指数 (LMDI) 和对人口,财富和技术 (STIRPAT) 的回归对人口,财富和技术 (STIRPAT) 的随机影响模型用于因子分析和未来预测.

主要成果:

大米种植,肥料生产和灌电力是主要的排放来源.
经济和劳动力结构的变化推动了排放;人口和强度的影响抑制了它们.
排放量在2016年达到峰值 (69.6万CO2-eq),预计在2020-2030年期间将下降3.92%-4.52%.

结论:

通过结构性调整优先减少来自大米生产的排放.
优化种植结构,田管理和促进干栽培是关键的减缓策略.

关键词:

农业活动农业活动减少排放的战略减少排放的战略逻辑平均分离指数 (LMDI) 是一个指数.这就是STIRPAT模型.

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