各国发展指标的规模化及其起源
Chenyang Shuai1, Chuan Liao2, Shen Qu3,4
1School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
iScience
|August 16, 2024
概括
国家发展指标经常错误地假设与人口的线性缩放. 这项研究揭示了亚线性缩放,并突出了城市化.
科学领域:
- 社会经济系统分析 社会经济系统分析
- 城市研究 城市研究
- 国家发展经济学
背景情况:
- 人口规范化指标 (例如人均GDP) 是国家发展比较的标准.
- 假设人口和发展指标之间的线性缩放可能会忽视关键的非线性社会经济相互作用和聚合效应.
研究的目的:
- 实证地证明人口和国家发展指标之间的亚线性扩展.
- 开发一个理论框架,用城市缩放规则解释这些缩放模式.
- 调查城市化在改变国家发展轨迹中的作用.
主要方法:
- 对国家一级数据的实证分析,以评估扩展关系.
- 基于城市缩放原则的理论框架的开发.
- 统计建模以探索城市化对增长动态的影响.
主要成果:
- 广泛的证据表明,人口和国家发展指标之间的比例是次线性的,而不是线性的.
- 一个理论框架解释了这些缩放现象.
- 城市化被认为是将次线性增长转化为超线性增长的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 在国家发展比较中,无处不在的线性缩放假设是有缺陷的.
- 城市化对于实现国家持续发展和提高生活水平至关重要.
- 调查结果可以为公平的国际比较和可持续发展的政策提供信息.
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