主观概率在整个通信链中增加:引入概率升级效应
Adam J L Harris1, Shi-Hui Kau1, Alice Liefgreen1
1Division of Psychology & Language Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
Cognition
|August 16, 2024
概括
主观概率在通讯链中不断升级. 这种"概率升级效应"增加了严重,不严重和积极事件的估计,可能是通过关注事件发生.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
背景情况:
- 一个"严重性效应"显示数值概率翻译不同基于结果的严重性.
- 这种效应在语言对数字和数字对语言的概率翻译中都被观察到.
研究的目的:
- 调查这些严重性影响是否导致主观概率通过通信链升级.
- 通过多个通信阶段识别驱动概率升级的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 进行了四项"通信链"研究.
- 参与者将口头概率表达式转换为数字或数字转换为口头表达式.
- 在连续的沟通阶段,概率翻译在参与者之间进行.
主要成果:
- 在所有研究中都观察到一个一般的"概率升级效应".
- 随着每一个随后的沟通阶段,主观概率都在不断增加.
- 这种升级发生在严重,不严重和积极事件中.
结论:
- 概率升级效应表明,通过沟通,主观概率估计的持续增加.
- 这些发现表明,沟通过程直接引起注意,放大了对焦点结果事件的估计.
- 这突出了关于事件概率的信息如何传输和感知的潜在偏见.
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