使用动态贝叶斯网络进行客非法干扰紧急处置的动态决策方法
Yu Wu1, Shiting He2, Jinxin Shi3
1College of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, 300300, China. y_wu@cauc.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|August 16, 2024
概括
优化航空安全事件响应需要分析潜在的故障. 这项研究确定了机损坏和航空公司培训等关键因素,以改善紧急处置和提高安全.
科学领域:
- 航空安全航空安全
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 运营研究 运营研究
背景情况:
- 有效处理非法干扰事件对于航空安全至关重要.
- 航空安全操作需要涉及航空公司,机场和乘客的综合方法.
- 随机故障可以发生在事故处理过程的各个阶段.
研究的目的:
- 为民用航空优化紧急处置决策.
- 提高民用航空运营的效率.
- 为了减少事故和降低运营成本.
主要方法:
- 构建了一个具有26个节点的动态断层树来分析紧急处置过程.
- 将动态断层树转换为动态贝叶斯网络,以探索事件关系和优先级.
- 使用历史数据进行模拟分析,重点关注后期的概率,灵敏度和重要性.
主要成果:
- 确定了"机结构损坏"",航空公司培训不足"和"机场警察不及时接管"作为机非法干扰事件中的关键节点.
- 确定大多数关键节点与航空公司有关.
- 证明了关键节点的决策路径可以清楚地观察和优先考虑.
结论:
- 航空公司在关键事件管理中发挥着重要作用.
- 机场可以实施有针对性的紧急处置措施.
- 定量分析和模拟为通过动态紧急处置加强民用航空安全提供了可操作的指导.
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