2000年至2060年中国大米种植甲排放的长期变化:趋势,驱动因素,预测和政策影响
Nanchi Shen1, Jiani Tan1, Wenjin Wang1
1School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shanghai University, 200444 Shanghai, China.
Environment international
|August 17, 2024
概括
中国大米种植产生的甲 (CH4) 排放受到各种因素的影响,其中草添加率是关键因素. 政策干预,特别是调整草添加,可以显著减少未来的CH4米排放.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 米种植 (CH4米) 的甲 (CH4) 排放是区域温室气体预算的重要贡献者.
- 之前的研究主要集中在历史的CH4米估计,忽视了气候变化和政策情景下的未来预测.
- 了解长期趋势和有针对性的减排目标对于有效的环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究过去二十年中中国CH4大米的时空变化.
- 确定CH4米排放的主要驱动因素.
- 在气候变化情景和政策干预下预测未来的CH4米排放.
主要方法:
- 综合方法分析时空变化,并确定排放驱动因素.
- 统计分析以确定诸如草添加率 (RSA),施肥,土壤质地,温度和降水等因素对每单位大米产量 (CH4-urp) 的CH4排放的影响.
- 在不同的政策和气候变化条件下预测未来的CH4米排放的场景分析.
主要成果:
- 在过去二十年中,中国的CH4米排放量在6.21至6.57 Tg/年之间,显示南方的下降趋势和北方的增加趋势.
- 增加的草率 (RSA) 被确定为影响CH4-urp的最重要的耕作管理因素,解释了32%的差异.
- 情景分析表明,以生产/需求为重点的政策可以使CH4大米增加0.3%-5.6%,而调整RSA可以将其减少9.4%-10.0%.
结论:
- 结构调整,区域合作和优化工业布局对于控制中国的CH4大米至关重要.
- 实施维持田间和作物产量的政策可以平衡大米的供需,减少与生产相关的CH4大米过剩.
- 政策驱动的耕作管理,例如降低RSA,提供了一条可行的途径,到2060年大幅减少CH4米排放量,达到12.01%.
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