基于LASSO回归的高级非小细胞肺癌患者的生存预测模型的开发和验证
Yimeng Guo1, Lihua Li1, Keao Zheng2
1Department of Pharmacy, Shanxi Province Cancer Hospital/Shanxi Hospital Affiliated to Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.
Frontiers in immunology
|August 19, 2024
概括
使用LASSO回归的新模型准确地预测了高级非小细胞肺癌 (NSCLC) 患者的存活率. 这种工具有助于临床医生进行风险分层和个性化治疗决策,以获得更好的患者结果.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 非小细胞肺癌 (NSCLC) 构成了重大的全球健康挑战,晚期癌症预后不佳.
- 目前的高级NSCLC的预后评估模型需要改进,以便精确地分层患者.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个强大的生存预测模型,用于诊断为晚期非小细胞肺癌 (NSCLC) 的患者.
主要方法:
- 利用了523名NSCLC患者的数据集,分为培训 (n=313) 和验证 (n=210) 队列.
- 采用单变Cox回归,LASSO回归和随机生存森林 (RSF) 进行初始变量选择.
- 使用多变量考克斯回归构建和验证预测模型,根据验证集中最高的引导C指数选择最佳模型.
主要成果:
- 该LASSO回归模型,包括N阶段,中性粒细胞-淋巴细胞比率 (NLR),D-二次体,神经元特异性酶 (NSE),状细胞癌抗原 (SCC),驱动器改变和一线治疗,在验证数据集中实现了最高的启动C指数 (0.668).
- 该模型表现出良好的预测歧视,ROC曲线下的面积 (AUC) 值在1至3年生存预测中从0.691到0.707不等.
- 校准图和决策曲线分析证实了该模型在预测和观察生存率及其临床实用性之间的良好一致.
结论:
- 拉索回归模型为预测晚期NSCLC患者的生存结果提供了有效的工具.
- 这种经过验证的模型可以显著帮助临床医生做出明智的治疗决策,患者风险分层和个性化管理策略.
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