中国大陆的胃癌流行:当前趋势和未来预测
Wenxuan Zhu1, Wanyue Dong2, Yunning Liu3
1School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210094, China.
Chinese medical journal
|August 19, 2024
概括
中国男性的胃癌发病率正在上升,预测显示将继续增加. 人口老龄化是未来病例和死亡的关键驱动因素,需要加强公共卫生工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 中国面临着巨大的胃癌负担.
- 了解长期趋势对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国的胃癌发病率和死亡率趋势 (1990-2019).
- 到2030年,预测未来的胃癌趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 采用了年龄周期队列框架和分解分析.
主要成果:
- 胃癌发病率显示,男性每年净漂移0.2%,女性每年漂移-1.8%.
- 两性死亡率均下降 (男性为-1.6%,女性为-3.3%).
- 在最近出生的人群中,发病风险增加,特别是在1970年后出生的男性和1985年后出生的女性中.
结论:
- 中国男性的胃癌发病率有所增加,预计会持续下去.
- 人口老龄化是未来胃癌病例和死亡的主要驱动因素.
- 有针对性的干预措施对于减轻胃癌的影响至关重要.
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