由于气候变化而增加的氧化排放因子增加了农业部门的减缓挑战
Linchao Li1, Chaoqun Lu1, Wilfried Winiwarter2,3
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.
Global change biology
|August 19, 2024
概括
有效的肥管理是减少氧化 (N2O) 排放的关键. 气候变化和低雄心的政策可能会增加N2O排放因素,突出需要紧急的减缓战略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 有效的肥管理对于粮食安全和减少氧化 (N2O) 排放至关重要.
- 气候变化可能与管理实践相互作用,改变N2O排放量和排放因子 (EF),造成缓解潜力的不确定性.
- 预测未来的N2O排放需要了解气候,土壤和管理之间的动态相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个混合建模框架,整合机器学习和基于过程的模型来预测N2O排放因子 (EFs).
- 评估不同气候和政策情景对未来N2O EFs的影响.
- 为社会经济评估和与N2O排放相关的政策制定提供一个计算效率高的工具.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合建模框架,将机器学习模型与八个基于过程的模型组合起来.
- 在各种气候和政策情景下预测的N2O排放因子.
- 分析了环境变化 (气候,土壤特性) 和管理实践对EFs的影响.
主要成果:
- N2O排放因子由气候,土壤特性和管理动态调节.
- 在低雄心的政策下,N2O EF预计将从1.18%-1.22% (2010) 增加到1.27%-1.34% (2050),超过IPCC一级EF.
- 由于变暖和干湿循环,EF预计将在全球范围内上升,即使没有改变管理.
结论:
- 雄心勃勃的气政策有可能减轻气候变化导致的N2O EFs的增加.
- 迫切需要减少N2O排放,因为肥的不对称影响加剧了气候变化.
- 混合建模框架为预测未来N2O排放和为政策决策提供信息提供了一种高效的方法.
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