在英国使用国际监测数据和机器学习预测气候相关的非结核菌菌 (NTM) 感染
Amy Marie Campbell1, Katy Willis1, Edward Parsons1
1Global Assessment and Emerging Hazards Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom.
PLOS global public health
|August 19, 2024
概括
气候变化,包括气温上升和暴雨,预计在未来十年内,英国非结核菌菌 (NTM) 感染率将增加6.2%. 加强监测对于预测这些与气候有关的健康影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境微生物学环境微生物学
- 气候变化和健康问题
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
背景情况:
- 非结核菌 (NTM) 导致严重的皮肤和肺部感染,死亡率高.
- NTM感染对抗生素和水处理具有耐药性,这给公共卫生带来了挑战.
- 环境条件影响NTM的流行,气候变化可能会增加水库适用性和人类暴露.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的气候变化情景,评估英国NTM感染的预计负担.
- 调查气候变量与国际NTM监测数据之间的关系.
- 预测由于气候变化而导致英国NTM感染率的潜在增加.
主要方法:
- 分析与气候变量 (温度,降水) 相关联的国际NTM监测数据.
- 开发和应用一个监督学习随机森林回归模型.
- 在英国使用气候变化模型预测NTM感染率.
主要成果:
- 发现了NTM感染与降水和温度增加之间具有统计学意义的积极关联,这些关联在具有可报告NTM数据的地区存在.
- 一个随机森林模型预测未来10年英国NTM感染率将增加6.2%.
- 预计NTM感染的增加显示了英国内部显著的区域差异.
结论:
- 预计英国的气候变化影响,如气温上升和暴雨增加,预计将提高NTM感染率.
- 强大的未来监测对于改善气候相关NTM趋势的预测模型至关重要.
- 这项研究突出了气候变化对英国公共卫生影响的新维度.
更多相关视频
06:26Author Spotlight: Optimizing CFU Determination for Efficient Assessment of TB Vaccine Efficacy and Antigen Presentation Analysis
Published on: July 28, 2023
2.2K
15:28A Microscopic Phenotypic Assay for the Quantification of Intracellular Mycobacteria Adapted for High-throughput/High-content Screening
Published on: January 17, 2014
7.8K
相关概念视频
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
115
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
115
01:26Pulmonary Tuberculosis IV
134
Tuberculosis, more commonly referred to as TB, is an infectious disease stemming from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. While it primarily impacts the lungs, TB can also affect other body areas. Given its severity and global impact, timely and accurate diagnosis is crucial for controlling its spread and improving patient outcomes.
Several diagnostic approaches are used to detect TB. The conventional method is the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), also known as the Mantoux test. However, this method has...
Several diagnostic approaches are used to detect TB. The conventional method is the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), also known as the Mantoux test. However, this method has...
134
01:28Pulmonary Tuberculosis V
174
Medical management of tuberculosis (TB) patients involves a comprehensive approach that includes diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring. The specific strategies can vary depending on the type of tuberculosis (latent or active), the patient's overall health status, and other considerations.
Latent tuberculosis infection occurs when TB bacteria are present in a person's body, but are not causing illness or symptoms. It is not contagious, and preventive treatment is crucial to avoid the...
Latent tuberculosis infection occurs when TB bacteria are present in a person's body, but are not causing illness or symptoms. It is not contagious, and preventive treatment is crucial to avoid the...
174