推进水管故障分析:用于识别重大因素的概率框架
Muhammad Muddassir1, Tarek Zayed1, Ridwan Taiwo1
1Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 11 Yuk Choi Road, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China.
Scientific reports
|August 19, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的框架,以确定导致供水网络 (WDN) 输水管道故障的关键因素. 研究强调铁和聚乙烯是最容易发生故障的管道材料.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 在水分网 (WDNs) 中的水管故障造成了重大环境,经济和社会问题.
- 现有的水管故障分析缺乏系统的因素选择,并遭受数据偏差.
- 有效的缓解需要分析历史WDN数据以确定关键故障因素.
研究的目的:
- 为系统识别影响水管故障的重要因素提供一个新的框架.
- 解决当前文献中关于WDN故障分析中的因素选择和数据偏差的局限性.
- 为了实现更好的资源分配和在水基础设施管理中的决策.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个框架和两个算法来分析影响管道故障的分类和数值因素.
- 应用算法来评估因素相关性和频率分布的意义.
- 利用概率特征方法和贝叶斯定理,根据材料和确定因素估计失败概率.
- 在香港WDN数据集上测试了框架.
主要成果:
- 在21个影响香港水管故障的重要因素中,确定了10个.
- 铁和聚乙烯管道被发现是最容易发生故障的.
- 该框架有效地优先考虑了针对性干预的重大失败因素.
结论:
- 拟议的框架为WDN管道故障分析提供了一种系统的方法.
- 准确识别故障因素和易受损害的材料有助于积极的基础设施管理.
- 决策者可以利用这个框架来优化资源分配和提高WDN的弹性.
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