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R2不应该用来描述行为经济折扣和需求模型
Brett W Gelino1, Justin C Strickland1, Matthew W Johnson2
1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior
|August 20, 2024
概括
确定系数 (R2) 经常用于操作性行为经济学,但与非线性模型不兼容. 这项研究突出了R2的重要性.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 操作者调节 操作者调节
- 量化心理学 量化心理学
背景情况:
- 确定系数 (R2) 是操作行为经济学中广泛使用的指标,用于评估模型适合性和数据质量.
- 然而,R2基本上与非线性模型不兼容,对先进的行为经济分析构成挑战.
- 最近在"行为实验分析杂志"上发表的文献显示,尽管使用非线性模型,但仍然依赖R2.
研究的目的:
- 讨论与在行为经济研究中使用R2相关的局限性和担忧,特别是与非线性模型.
- 检查与行为经济数据中的线性模式相比,适合度指标的潜在偏差.
- 推其他方法来评估行为经济研究中的数据系统性.
主要方法:
- 对"行为实验分析杂志" (Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior) 中使用非线性模型的最近文章的评论.
- 对合适性报告趋势的分析,重点关注R2.2的使用.
- 数学检查 R2 度量如何系统地影响折扣和需求分析中的参数估计.
主要成果:
- 对于较低的参数值 (例如,折扣参数k,弹性参数a),R2在数学上更严格,从而产生偏差.
- 在行为经济建模中的好适合度指标和初级输出之间存在正相关性,可能有利于某些模型类型.
- 由R2引入的偏差可能因数据集的组成和来源而异.
结论:
- 在行为经济学中依赖R2可能会导致对模型匹配的偏见评估,特别是在非线性模型中.
- 建议使用替代方法,例如测试基本数据预期的算法,以进行更强大的数据评估.
- 研究人员应该意识到R2的局限性,并在分析中考虑其对参数估计的影响.
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