穿越陆海界面:对陆地繁殖的海洋捕食者的气候变化风险评估
Milan Sojitra1, Stuart Corney2, Mark Hemer3
1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Global change biology
|August 20, 2024
概括
气候变化对海洋捕食者在繁殖季节带来重大风险. 一个新的框架将害羞的鱼,岩企和毛皮海确定为需要保护的高度紧急物种.
科学领域:
- 生态学和气候变化生物学
- 海洋保护 海洋保护
- 风险评估框架 风险评估框架
背景情况:
- 气候变化影响了海洋捕食者的分布,猎物和繁殖,威胁着全球的种群.
- 由于受限的食范围,中部食者在繁殖期间特别脆弱.
- 现有的风险评估往往缺乏对海洋捕食者的关键繁殖生物学数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用基于特征的风险评估框架,用于在繁殖季节对海洋捕食者的风险评估.
- 量化气候变化风险,确定具体威胁,并建立一个可适应的评估方法.
- 在澳大利亚和南极水域识别具有高气候变化紧迫性的海洋捕食物种.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于特征的风险评估框架,考虑了脆弱性,暴露和危险的25个标准.
- 一个评分系统整合了系统的文献审查和专家挑选危险标准.
- 蒙特卡洛灵敏度分析确定了海洋掠食者气候风险的关键驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 害羞的阿尔巴特罗斯,南方岩企,澳大利亚毛皮海和澳大利亚海狮被确定为具有高度气候紧迫性.
- 低度的繁殖物种和特定的海,鱼和企群体面临着更高的风险.
- 气候危害 (极端天气,息地适宜性,猎物可用性) 和暴露在确定风险时比脆弱性更有影响力.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一种可靠的方法来评估海洋捕食者的气候变化风险,优先考虑保护需求.
- 对于高风险物种,迫切需要进行保护和进一步研究,重点关注知识差距.
- 繁殖季节为监测和实施这些依赖陆地的物种气候适应战略提供了一个关键的窗口.
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