最近CO2排放和中国省份的预测:新的驱动因素和整体预测
Chong Xu1, Zengqiang Qin1, Jun Li2
1School of Public Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 20, 2024
概括
资本和劳动力显著推动二氧化碳排放,但也有助于缩小差距. 优化它们的使用和促进循环经济是可持续发展和经济增长的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 对二氧化碳排放驱动因素进行了广泛的研究,但资本和劳动力在时空变化和预测中的具体作用仍未得到充分探索.
- 这种知识差距阻碍了可持续发展的有效政策制定,特别是在发展中国家平衡气候缓解和经济增长方面.
研究的目的:
- 研究资本和劳动力对中国近期二氧化碳排放 (2010-2019) 的贡献.
- 预测到2030年省级二氧化碳排放量.
- 解决在二氧化碳排放预测和政策制定中对劳动力和资本角色的不充分考虑问题.
主要方法:
- 开发了两种新的时空对数平均值 Divisia 索引模型,其中包含了 Cobb-Douglas 生产函数.
- 实施一个集成预测模型,利用机器学习技术来提高预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 除了碳因素,资本和劳动投入被确定为总体二氧化碳排放的积极驱动因素.
- 总因子生产率和能源强度显示对二氧化碳排放产生负面影响.
- 资本和劳动力投入被发现是缩小区域之间的排放差距的负面驱动因素.
- 整体预测模型显著提高了二氧化碳排放预测的概括能力.
结论:
- 政策制定者应该优先优化与资本和劳动力投入相关的碳减排影响.
- 促进循环经济对于实现可持续的经济增长以及减排目标至关重要.
- 将劳动力和资本分析整合到二氧化碳排放模型中,对于明智的气候和经济政策至关重要.
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